As reported by CNBC Indonesia, the conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran has entered its third week, stoking global fears about energy supply chains. As of March 2026, president Donald Trump’s threat of further strikes on Iran directly triggered Tehran’s reciprocal warnings, escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz—a critical artery for 1/5 of global oil supplies. The maneuvering has sent ripples through financial markets, with crude prices surging over 40% this month alone. Such volatility doesn’t just shake commodity trading desks; it reshapes foreign policy agendas for major powers.
Crude prices surge: A Five-Year high amid rising uncertainty
Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) have hit a five-year high, a sharp contrast to pre-war stability. According to Reuters, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted critical supply routes, fueling economic turbulence worldwide. “This marks a new escalation in Middle Eastern tensions,” noted Natasha Kaneva of JP Morgan. “Oil infrastructure in the region was once relatively secure, but now it’s a prime target.” The price spike isn’t just affecting producers—it’s also pushing consumers like Japan to tap strategic reserves, a move that raises eyebrows in energy circles.
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While the U.S. and Israel have targeted Iran’s Kharg Island, Iran’s retaliation with drone strikes on Fujairah’s oil terminals has exposed the fragility of regional infrastructure. Fujairah, processing 1 million barrels daily, now sits perilously close to the Strait of Hormuz. Facilities like Ras Tanura and Abqaiq; Saudi Arabia’s vital processing hubs, are also under threat. “Abqaiq is the beating heart of global refining,” Kaneva explained. “A disruption there could slash output by 5 million barrels a day.” Despite repairs at Fujairah, lingering damage to key facilities continues to shadow oil availability.
Supply disruptions and global intervention calls
The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts an 8 million barrel drop in March, driven by transport bottlenecks. Middle Eastern producers are further tightening the screws, cutting output by 10 million barrels. The IEA’s release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves is a clear signal of crisis management. “This is an emergency response,” said an Oxford energy expert. “Even Japan is considering releasing its own reserves, highlighting the depth of concern.” U.S. efforts to secure the Strait of Hormuz, including consultations with allies like Japan and France, underscore the gravity of the threat.
Broken diplomacy and the road ahead
Diplomatic overtures have proven insufficient. Trump’s rejection of Gulf allies’ ceasefire proposals, paired with Iran’s refusal to pause hostilities during active operations, has stymied talks. “Violence only deepens instability,” warned a Pew Research Center report. “This isn’t just a regional conflict – it’s a global energy security crisis.” With no immediate path to de-escalation, the financial markets remain on edge. The risk of prolonged clashes looms large, prolonging the economic aftershocks already felt across continents.
Based on reporting from various media outlets. Any editorial opinion is that of the author.
